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we are an asset management firm
That aims to avoid the losers in your portfolio
by combining actuarial science with data, and technology.

Avoiding losers in your portfolio

picking winners is a losing game.

We believe that many investors have an imperfect understanding
of where alpha comes from.

Most think in terms of picking winners

when we believe their goal should be to avoid losers.

what is a loser?

A loser is a company that cannot deliver the revenue growth indicated by its stock price.

Important Disclosure

The snapshot is being provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. This snapshot is taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in it is outdated and should not be relied upon. Past performance is not an indication or a guarantee of future results. For full disclosure click here.

Reset Imagine the extra return you might have made by avoiding the losers in the S&P 500.

Our understanding of a company’s ability to
deliver revenue growth

a four-step process

Step

1

Step

2

Step

3

Step

4

Historical mean
understand the revenue growth possibilities could deliver

has a range of potential revenue growth possibilities. To determine this range, we take ’s revenue growth from the past 12 quarters and conduct 10,000 statistical simulations.

This process generates a mean revenue growth rate and a range of revenue growth possibilities for from most to least likely.

implied growth rate (IGR) revenue growth implied by the stock
calculate ’s revenue growth indicated by the stock price.

We believe ’s stock price indicates revenue growth in the future.

We use the stock price together with widely accepted valuation methodologies to calculate ’s indicated revenue growth.

Historical mean Implied revenue growth rate h-factor
compare what must deliver to what could deliver

We believe a losing stock is one where the company is unable to deliver revenue growth indicated by its stock price.

To Identify if is a losing stock, we calculate the probability that indicated revenue growth is within the range of revenue growth possibilities.

There is a probability will fail to deliver the growth implied by its stock price.

In our process a lower h-factor is better.

use the h-factor
to avoid the losers

The h-factor is the probability the company will fail to deliver the growth indicated by its stock price.

The risk is caused by humans impounding vague and ambiguous information into stock prices in a systematically incorrect way.

high h-factor

Avoid

low h-factor

Invest

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